Beginning on the morning of Sunday, 18 January, the Syrian pound saw an appreciation against foreign currencies, a move that coincided with the Syrian army recovering major oil and gas installations in the eastern part of the country.
According to the “Lira Today” platform, the exchange rate improved to 11,000 Syrian pounds for every US dollar. This follows a period of several weeks where the currency wavered between 12,000 and 12,800 following the implementation of a currency replacement program. Simultaneously, the Central Bank of Syria maintained its official rate at 11,000 pounds per dollar, as indicated in the bulletin issued on Monday, 19 January.
A survey of Damascus markets conducted by Enab Baladi revealed that this currency gain has translated into lower prices for only a specific selection of consumer goods. Many other products remain at their previous price points. Business owners explained that they acquired their current inventory when the dollar was valued at a higher rate. Furthermore, they noted that the rapid shifts in the exchange rate make it difficult to adjust prices constantly, suggesting that frequent changes “could undermine consumer trust.”
In a bid for more stability and flexibility, some retailers have begun labeling prices in US dollars. Merchants stated that this allows customers to buy dollars from exchange firms at the prevailing rate and complete their transactions based on the fixed dollar price.
Market Dynamics and Psychological Factors
Economist Majdi al-Jamous has connected the pound’s recent gains to the military and political shifts occurring in Syria. He specifically pointed to a “general euphoria” linked to what he characterized as military and political “victories,” alongside the resolution of certain sensitive issues.
According to al-Jamous, this climate led many citizens to believe that these events would result in immediate economic improvements, thereby boosting the pound’s value. However, he argued that this rise does not reflect “a real economic reality.” Instead, he described it as a product of speculation, where market players leverage public optimism and the “euphoria of victory” to trick individuals into believing that economic progress is imminent.
He emphasized that any substantive economic change, while theoretically possible, would require significant time and cannot occur overnight. He cautioned that current trends represent a coordinated effort to boost the pound’s value temporarily. This pressure, he suggests, encourages citizens to trade in their foreign currency reserves before the dollar climbs again, particularly during currency replacement cycles. al-Jamous believes this strategy primarily serves speculators while leaving ordinary citizens and small-scale traders to face the losses.
Regarding the longevity of this trend, al-Jamous stressed that the current movement is fueled by psychological factors and lacks a tangible short-term foundation. He noted that deriving economic benefits from assets like border crossings or oil fields requires extensive time and an infrastructure capable of managing such investments.
The economist highlighted that existing infrastructure is in a state of severe decay. He suggested that potential revenues might not even suffice for the necessary rehabilitation of these systems, let alone spark a full-scale economic recovery.
A Brief Window of Improvement
Al-Jamous contends that even if the pound’s rise is genuine, it will likely only serve as an adjustment to high inflation, with commodity prices remaining static. He argued that military and political successes are being used to encourage people to “flee” toward holding Syrian pounds. He warned that the situation could reverse in just a few days, with the dollar rising once more to the benefit of speculators.
To convert these developments into sustainable economic growth, al-Jamous stated that political stability must come first, followed by military and security consistency. Such a foundation could lead to agreements with international firms—including those from the United States—to invest in gas and oil resources. He pointed out that these fields require extensive restructuring, repair, and rehabilitation before they can become productive again, and reaching the export phase will take even longer.
He further suggested that while direct contracts with foreign entities and control over border crossings might offer a “limited but acceptable impact,” a full recovery is a distant prospect without a stable political framework and a clear economic strategy.
In his concluding remarks, al-Jamous stated that a true recovery necessitates building international ties, securing global recognition, the removal of sanctions, and the receipt of foreign aid. Only with these elements in place can Syria develop and implement a functional economic model that reflects a sustainable value for the Syrian pound. As for the current exchange rate improvement, he deems it detached from economic reality, noting that strengthening the pound requires long-term external monetary support to bolster central bank reserves.
State Control of Eastern Energy Assets
Over the last 48 hours, the Syrian army has regained several of the most significant gas and oil fields in eastern Syria, which had been under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for years. These installations are considered vital components of the national economy and energy strategy, effectively bringing the state back into the fold of national production.
Correspondents for Enab Baladi in Deir Ezzor confirmed that the army took control of major fields east of the Euphrates River on Sunday, 18 January, following an SDF withdrawal. The assets returned to state control include:
- al-Omar field: The nation’s largest oil field and the primary driver of production east of the Euphrates.
- Conoco field: The most critical natural gas field, which provides fuel for power plants and supports household and industrial needs.
- al-Tanak and al-Izba fields: Key components of the major field network that support national oil output.
The Syrian Petroleum Compa
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