The fast-paced transitions currently occurring across the Euphrates region serve as a classic demonstration of what political science identifies as the “end of functional roles” for non-state entities. Following a period defined by political and military growth, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have reached a stage of organizational decay and absorption into central state apparatuses.
This result was far from accidental; rather, it was the product of a series of strategic errors, reliance on volatile international alliances, and a consistent failure to acknowledge the social and geographical truths of the territory.
The Strategic Illusion of Borrowed Power
The decline of the SDF framework is best understood through the lens of the “Kabul Moment.” This term describes the realization by local actors that their perceived strength was never their own, but was instead “borrowed” from a superpower that maintains the “luxury of abandonment.” The leadership of the SDF fell into the trap of believing that a temporary partnership with Washington for counterterrorism had transformed into a permanent political vow to protect a quasi-autonomous or separatist state.
As global priorities transitioned, this strategic vulnerability left the SDF without its security guarantee. They discovered too late that initiatives born out of “power vacuums” have a limited functional lifespan that ends when their usefulness is exhausted, eventually forcing them to reconcile with a geography that only acknowledges the sovereignty of the nation-state.
Internal Fragmentation and Defensive Failure
From a military perspective, the SDF’s downfall was not caused by a lack of fortifications or hardware. Instead, it was characterized by a rapid defensive breakdown caused by internal division. The entity, which presented itself as a “democratic alliance,” failed to close the increasing gap between its core leadership and the Arab majority it governed.
The social and political exclusion of Arab tribes turned them from potential allies into an internal source of friction that accelerated the collapse of the defense network. As government forces utilized flexible field maneuvers to advance, the SDF’s lines broke down in succession. The fighters on the front lacked a cohesive combat philosophy linked to the territory they were protecting, turning the promised “legendary resistance” into nothing more than futile efforts to buy time.
Lost Opportunities and the Terms of Return
Reviewing the history of negotiations shows that the SDF leadership took a strategic risk by repeatedly turning down offers from Damascus. In early 2026, a proposal for political and administrative integration was presented, which would have ensured a specific level of local distinction. However, by betting on foreign intervention and the passage of time, the SDF allowed that window to close.
Currently, the SDF has no choice but to agree to a “full return” that lacks any sovereign status. Their military wings are being dismantled, with personnel being integrated into the Syrian army as individuals, while the central state has regained control over border crossings. Effectively, this signals the conclusion of the “self-administration project,” marking it as a short-lived era in the history of the Syrian conflict.
State Primacy and the Dissolution of Parallel Authorities
Recent legislative and political moves by the Syrian presidency, specifically those targeting the national and cultural rights of Kurds, served as the final blow to the SDF’s objectives. By incorporating Kurdish interests into a broad national structure, the separatist leadership was stripped of its political justification. This shift facilitated international consensus—including from the United States—regarding the new status quo.
The transition of SDF figures from internationally recognized “generals” to “employees” or “governors” within the state’s bureaucracy—evidenced by the potential selection of Mazloum Abdi as Governor of al-Hasakah—is the ultimate sign of a return to the natural order. Parallel structures inevitably fade once the state re-establishes its dominance.
The trajectory of the SDF provides a clear warning: attempting to use external power at the cost of national and social balance is a failing strategy. True legitimacy is not found in temporary foreign air support, but in being woven into the national fabric and respecting geopolitical constants—realities that continue to prove the state is the only permanent factor in the stability equation.
This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.
Comments are closed.