The 10 March Agreement, established between Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), currently remains in a state of paralysis. While neither side has formally abandoned the deal, the recent takeover of the Al-Ashrafiyah and Sheikh Maqsoud districts in Aleppo by the Syrian Army has fundamentally shifted the strategic landscape. These territorial changes have significantly reduced the SDF’s bargaining power while bolstering the position of the government in Damascus during ongoing negotiations.
This situation has created a contradictory environment: a formal political framework that technically survives on paper, contrasted against a sharpening military rivalry that is particularly intense in the countryside of eastern Aleppo.
Strategic Realignments Following the Battle for Aleppo
By securing Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Ashrafiyah, the Syrian Army effectively neutralized a primary source of SDF leverage. For years, these neighborhoods provided the SDF with a strategic foothold in Aleppo, which serves as Syria’s primary economic hub and is central to the country’s reconstruction efforts. The loss of these areas has forced a rewrite of both military strategies and political priorities.
Damascus views these moves as a necessary step to re-establish state control over vital urban centers and to eliminate what it describes as a disruptive armed presence in the city. Conversely, the SDF views the operation as a direct violation of the March Agreement and a move toward unilateral military escalation.
Commenting on the situation, Ilham Ahmed, a prominent official within the Autonomous Administration, accused the Syrian authorities of breaking the agreement via the Aleppo operations. Despite this, she noted the SDF’s continued readiness to engage in talks within the established framework. She further cautioned the transitional government that continuing the conflict could destabilize the region, invite further foreign meddling, and lead to a resurgence of terrorism.
Damascus Balances Military Gains and Diplomacy
The Syrian government is currently navigating both military and diplomatic paths, though it is visibly prioritizing field operations. As fighting grows more intense in the eastern Aleppo countryside, the Military Operations Directorate of the Syrian Army has designated the territory between Maskanah and Deir Hafer as a closed military zone. This decision was attributed to significant troop concentrations by the SDF, with the Directorate vowing to take all necessary steps to ensure the area is not used for attacks against the state.
Support for these actions has come from Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan characterized the Syrian Army’s entry into Al-Ashrafiyah and Sheikh Maqsoud as a “historic opportunity” and an “重要 gain for peace and stability.” He suggested that the government’s current approach demonstrates a cohesive strategy that integrates military strength with political dialogue to fulfill the March Agreement.
An Agreement Facing Internal and External Pressures
Some observers believe the 10 March Agreement has been stripped of its practical value. Dr. Muhannad Hafez Oglu, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, argues the deal is essentially dead. He claims the SDF has made it impossible to implement by attempting to create new realities on the ground through security disruptions in government-controlled territory.
Hafez Oglu suggests that Damascus keeps the agreement officially active only to serve as a baseline for any future discussions, even though it has become a logistical burden. Furthermore, he noted that the SDF’s decision-making process often occurs outside of Syrian borders, which hinders its ability to meet commitments made in Damascus. He also observed that the SDF’s attempts to frame the loss of Sheikh Maqsoud as a humanitarian crisis failed to gain momentum due to psychological tactics employed by the government, leaving the situation on the brink of a wider conflict.
Humanitarian Impacts and the Military Front
The shift of the front lines toward Maskanah and Deir Hafer has raised serious concerns regarding the welfare of civilians. Syrian state media has reported that the SDF is obstructing the use of a government-managed humanitarian corridor near the village of Hamimah on the M15 highway.
Azzam Al-Ghuraib, the Governor of Aleppo, criticized the SDF for using warning shots and concrete barriers to trap civilians, calling such actions a “flagrant violation of international law.” In response to the potential for large-scale displacement, three reception centers have been established in the Manbij area to assist those fleeing the anticipated combat zones. Meanwhile, the SDF has claimed that factions allied with the government have targeted villages near the Tishreen Dam with suicide drones, further heightening risks along the Maskanah–Deir Hafer axis.
Al-Sharaa’s Vision for National Integration
In a recent interview with state media, President Ahmad Al-Sharaa held the SDF responsible for the spike in violence in Aleppo. He alleged that their forces initiated the conflict by using drones and shelling residential zones, and maintained that the Syrian Army only entered the contested neighborhoods after most civilians had left.
Al-Sharaa also noted that international figures, including French President Emmanuel Macron and various American officials, had suggested plans for a non-violent SDF withdrawal. However, he stated these efforts were unsuccessful because the SDF, acting on orders from Qandil, turned down all proposals.
The President emphasized that the struggle is not over Kurdish rights, noting that Kurdish citizens already possess rights to political participation and sovereign roles under the constitution based on merit. “Kurdish citizens enjoy constitutionally guaranteed rights to citizenship, parliamentary participation, and access to sovereign positions,” he stated, while rejecting the idea that the SDF is the legitimate representative of the Kurdish people. He instead advocated for the group’s integration into state institutions, specifically the national army. He also questioned the logic of an armed group controlling roughly 25% of Syria, including regions largely populated by Arab tribes, under the claim of protecting a minority population.
Future Outlook: Conditional Diplomacy
Firas Allawi, a political analyst, suggests that the foundational elements of the March Agreement have eroded. With the loss of their Aleppo strongholds, the SDF has lost its most potent bargaining chip, giving Damascus the upper hand.
While the agreement is still technically in place—partly due to pressure from the United States—Allawi believes that future negotiations will occur under new terms that favor the government. He expects a strategy involving steady military advancement west of the Euphrates coupled with political maneuvers in the east to keep the SDF under constant pressure. The current reality remains a paradox: a document that exists on paper while the battlefield continues to expand.
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